The Impact of Tariffs on Alberta Restaurants & How to Prepare

While U.S.-led tariffs on Canadian products and Canada’s retaliatory measures have been deferred until March 2025, the looming threat remains. If imposed, these tariffs and counter-tariffs could drive up operational costs, disrupt supply chains, and put jobs at risk on both sides of the border.

How Tariffs Affect Alberta Restaurants

1. Rising Ingredient and Supply Costs

Tariffs will increase the cost of key food items such as meat, dairy, fresh produce, seafood, juices, and processed goods, as well as essential non-food items like cleaning supplies and packaging materials. Additionally, U.S.-sourced ingredients like avocados and spices could see price hikes, further straining restaurant budgets.

2. Supply Chain Disruptions

Tariffs on Canadian agricultural products could create short-term surpluses, lowering prices initially but may cause long-term pricing instability and ingredient shortages. Restaurants may need to adjust menus or find alternative suppliers to maintain quality.

3. Economic Uncertainty & Consumer Behavior Shifts

With fluctuating ingredient costs, restaurants could face menu price increases and shifting customer demand. Consumers may dine out less or choose budget-friendly options, impacting restaurant revenue.

4. Cross-Border Retaliation & Business Challenges

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs could further impact restaurants, increasing the cost of imported U.S. products like spirits, boxed beef, and frozen foods. The $120 billion food service industry, employing 1.2 million Canadians, cannot withstand further cost increases after years of inflationary pressures.

How Restaurants Can Stay Resilient

With uncertainty ahead, Alberta restaurants can take proactive steps:

✔ Diversify Suppliers – Reduce reliance on U.S. imports by sourcing locally or from other international markets. If you’re looking for Alberta-made alternatives to the products you currently carry, this resource will help you discover locally sourced options.

✔ Highlight Local Ingredients – Appeal to customers by emphasizing Canadian-grown products.

✔ Review Your Menu – Knowing which ingredients will see price increases if tariffs are implemented, review your menu and identify affected items. Analyze your profit margins on these dishes to understand the financial impact and determine if price adjustments are necessary. 
✔ Optimize Menus – Focus on seasonal, cost-effective ingredients to manage fluctuating prices.

✔ Enhance Customer Experience – Offset price increases with standout service, unique dishes, or local-themed events.

Which foods will be subject to Canadian tariffs at the border?
If the U.S. proceeds with its tariffs, Canada has announced its intention to levy tariffs on the following U.S. food products:

• Poultry products, including fresh and frozen turkey and chicken and eggs

• Dairy products, including milk, cream, butter, yogurt, cheeses, ice cream and margarine

• Various spices and seasonings, including: vanilla, pepper, cinnamon, nutmeg, thyme, ginger, cumin and others

• Fruits and vegetables, including tomatoes, cucumbers, citrus fruits, melons, berries and stone fruits

• Coffee and tea

• Grain products, including wheat, rye, barley, oats and rice

• Cooking oil products, including canola, palm oils, and sunflower oils

• Shrimp and prawns

• Confectionery products, including flours, sugars, honey, syrups and cocoa products

• Pastas

• Prepared bakery products, including pizza, pies, cakes and other pastries

• Orange juice

• Nuts and beans

• Condiments include mustard, ketchup, other tomato sauces, mayonnaise, and salad dressings

• Soups

• Bottled water

• Alcohol, including wine, beer, cider, whiskey, rum, gin, vodka, brandies and tequila

• Some paper and cardboard products, including pulp, toilet paper, envelopes, cards and postcards, boxes, bags, food packaging, plates and cups

• Glass and counter cleaner, dishwasher chemicals, and bleach

A full list of targeted goods can be found here.

What’s Next?

We will continue to monitor the situation and advocate for solutions that protect Alberta restaurants. Stay informed, explore local sourcing options, and prepare for potential changes.

While the March 2025 deferral gives some breathing room, Alberta restaurants should prepare now by diversifying suppliers, optimizing menus, and advocating for policy solutions that minimize disruption. Stay tuned for updates as we continue to fight for our industry.